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Forecast of the development of dairy market in March 2017

 

On the background of the reduction of dairy products consumption, exports in February was quite active, even comparing with the previous year. According to the results of reporting period Ukraine sold on foreign markets 9.1 ths. tons of dairy products, which is 15.9 million dollars in money value. These are quite positive indicators. If to compare with January export, the increase in natural value totaled in 2.7 thousand. tons. Comparing with February 2016 this increase reached 2.6 thousand. t.

In addition, as it was expected, the season of «big milk» has no such a significant impact, as in previous years. According to results of February about 599 ths. tons. of milk was produced in Ukraine, which is 3.8% more than in January. Last year the incensement was at the level of 4.2%. Milk production in February was weaker for 0.6% comparing with the previous year (6% less than in 2014).

However, milk prices started their falling this year much earlier (early February), which is not in accordance with market trends.

Such a trend has intensified since early March and farmers received protocols with the reduction of the price of 0.50−1 UAH/kg.

Till the end of the month prices will drop by another 5−8%, not because of real factors, but because of processors' desire to «recapture» the damage of 3rd and 4th quarters of last year.

Milk production in Ukraine, ths. tons